Risk Management of Construction Schedule Based on UMT Evaluation Method

Abstract

Construction progress risk management of construction projects is faced with the complexity, dynamics and uncertainty of multi-source risk factors. Traditional methods rely on a single indicator or empirical judgment, making it difficult to systematically reveal the risk transmission mechanism. Therefore, an integrated assessment model integrating work breakdown structure (WBS), risk breakdown structure (RBS) and uncertainty measurement theory (UMT) is proposed in this paper. A four-class risk assessment system including 18 key risk factors is constructed, covering four causes: organization management, resource supply, technology implementation and external environment. The risk level is divided into four levels I (extremely high risk) to IV (low risk). Through the combination of expert scoring method and entropy weight method to determine the weight of each index, establish the risk factor adjacency matrix. Taking DK-1 project of Rongchuang Yuhe Chenyuan as the empirical object, the uncertainty measurement function of single index is constructed by Matlab platform, and the measurement evaluation matrix of each risk factor is calculated. The results show that UMT evaluation method can effectively deal with the risk assessment problem under the condition of incomplete information, realize the organic integration of qualitative analysis and quantitative evaluation, and provide a new technical path for dynamic identification and scientific management of complex project schedule risk. In practical cases, the method improves the accuracy of risk identification by about 30% compared with traditional methods.