Predicted Potentially Suitable Areas for Ips Typographus in the Northwest Region of China Based on the Maxent Model
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54097/b24z8r11Keywords:
MaxEnt model, Ips typographus, Potential habitat, Environmental factors.Abstract
As a typical secondary pest in the family Scolytidae of Coleoptera, Ips typographus poses a serious threat to coniferous forest resources in the northwest region of China. This study forecasts the spatial distribution of potential habitats for I. typographus by using the MaxEnt model and GIS technology, based on 28 distribution points of I. typographus and 12 key environmental factor variables in the study area. Through contribution rate analysis, model validation, and superposition analysis of host plants, the driving mechanism of its habitat suitability was evaluated. The outcomes revealed that the mean value of AUC was 0.989, and the MaEent model had an extremely high prediction accuracy. Annual mean temperature (Bio1), precipitation of the driest month (Bio14), temperature seasonality (Bio4), and precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19) were determined as the key factors governing the distribution area of I. typographus among the 12 environmental variables used in the modeling. Their respective contribution rates were 31.5%, 26.3%, 9.8%, and 10.2%. These four variables collectively accounted for 77.8% of the total contribution. The northern mountainous areas of the study area are suitable for the spread of I. typographus. For example, Altay and Tacheng regions. The findings of this research could offer theoretical foundations for local forestry authorities to develop corresponding prevention and control measures.
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